SPS Commerce (SPSC): Gangbangcheon B × Geochajesi 6/20 — Dual EDI Moat, Historic Undervaluation at -73% from Peak, Watch-and-Wait
Market cap collapsed from $6.5B to $2.1B on Carbon6 failure and AI fears. Dual moat (network effects + switching costs) and 99 consecutive quarters of growth remain intact. FCF margin 20.3%, Piotroski 7/9. Conservative K-PER +5% (below threshold), base +43%. Near 52-week low of $49 — long-term small staged position only until growth stabilization is confirmed.
Core Position
Two-sided EDI network effects × ERP switching costs: dual moat of the #1 retail supply chain connectivity platform
Investment Thesis
SPS Commerce is the world's largest retail supply chain EDI connectivity platform with 115,000+ trading partners across 80+ countries. A dual moat — two-sided retailer/supplier network effects and deep ERP/OMS/WMS switching costs — is evidenced by 93–97% customer retention and 99 consecutive quarters of revenue growth ($752M in FY2025, +18% YoY, 94% recurring). However, the 2025 Carbon6 acquisition ($210M) was immediately undermined when Amazon changed its marketplace rules, raising capital allocation concerns under the new CEO. AI/API-based EDI obsolescence fears and activist Anson's push for a sale compounded the sell-off, dropping the stock 73% from the $215 peak to ~$58, near the 52-week low of $49. Gangbangcheon B × Geochajesi 6/20 — A-grade financial quality and moat, but growth deceleration, Carbon6 risk, and a full MA downtrend make this a watch-and-wait zone. The conservative K-PER scenario (+5%) misses the threshold, but at the base scenario (+43%), the current $2.1B market cap may represent historic undervaluation.
① Non-Financial — Two-Sided Network Effects × ERP Switching Costs: Dual Moat
The core moat is a dual structure of network effects and switching costs. The 115,000+ trading partner network (80+ countries) creates a two-sided marketplace where each new supplier joining SPS increases value for existing retailers. Deep ERP/OMS/WMS integration forces months of reconfiguration and partner re-onboarding on departure — evidenced by 93–97% customer retention. The 2025 MACS (Multi-Agent Commerce System) launch embeds agentic AI into the platform, preempting the "EDI is dead" narrative with "AI requires clean EDI data" positioning. However, both moats rest on the premise that EDI protocols remain dominant, making the pace of API/AI transition the key swing variable. → Full moat ratings, management, and competitive analysis in the Non-Financial tab.
② Validator — Gangbangcheon B × Geochajesi 6/20 = Good Fundamentals, Wait for Timing
Gangbangcheon 5 steps: all 1–4 pass (Industry ✅ · Market #1 ✅ · Business Model ✅⚠️ · Financial Quality ✅). Step 5 (K-PER): conservative scenario only +5% upside, below the 10% threshold → conditional Grade B. Geochajesi 6/20: Volume/Flow 1pt — avg. 15% daily volume, short interest 7.2% +80.6% YoY surge / Chart 1pt — full MA downtrend, 52-week low probe / Catalyst 2pt — EPS beat + FY guidance reaffirmed, Amazon headwind offset / Market 2pt — NASDAQ stable, SPSC underperforming sector. Short-term: no-trade zone. Long-term staged accumulation: up to 5% weight is feasible. → Full Gangbangcheon steps, K-PER scenarios, and Geochajesi scores in the Validator tab.
③ Technical — 11-Month Full MA Downtrend, RSI ~30 Oversold + Double Bottom Attempt
Full MA downtrend (200>50>20>5-day) has persisted 11 months since the July 2024 peak at $215. Current $58 is +18% above the 52-week low of $49 and 49% below the 200-day MA of ~$113. RSI ~30 at the oversold boundary, MACD histogram converging after 10+ months of negative readings, and two tests of the $49–$50 low suggest a W double bottom attempt (unconfirmed). Short interest 7.2%, up 80.6% YoY — a significant short squeeze catalyst if triggered. Recommended (Scenario A): enter on $49–$51 retest with RSI bullish divergence, stop $45, first target $70 (R:R 3.4:1). → Full scenarios, support/resistance, and RSI/MACD charts in the Technical tab.
Key Metrics
FY2025 Revenue
$752M
+18% YoY
FCF Margin
20.3%
$152M FCF
Recurring Revenue
94%
99분기 연속 성장
Market Cap
~$2.1B
NASDAQ: SPSC
Geochajesi
6 / 20
강방천 B
Base K-PER Upside
+43%
3년 기준 (보수 +5%)
Bull Case
- Dual moat (network effects + switching costs): 115,000 trading partner network built over decades — short-term replication is structurally impossible
- 99 consecutive quarters of revenue growth: Not a single quarter of declining revenue since 2001 — structural durability
- 94% recurring revenue + 20.3% FCF margin: Defensive cash flows that hold even during economic downturns
- AI positioning pivot: MACS launch + "AI requires clean EDI data" narrative preempts the EDI obsolescence thesis
- Current $2.1B market cap: 68% discount to the $6.5B peak — base-case K-PER scenario implies +43% upside
Bear Case
- Carbon6 capital allocation failure: $210M acquisition thesis invalidated immediately by Amazon rule changes — CEO credibility damage
- Long-term EDI obsolescence risk: Switching cost moat could erode structurally if AI/API transition accelerates
- Activist Anson pressure: Sale push fragments management focus and extends strategic uncertainty indefinitely
- Growth deceleration signal: +19% revenue growth in 2024 decelerating sharply to ~9% in 1Q 2026
- 11-month full MA downtrend + conservative K-PER +5%: Strong trend momentum and valuation below threshold
Technical Summary
Full MA downtrend (200>50>20>5-day) persisting for 11 months since the July 2024 peak at $215. Current $58 is +18% from the 52-week low of $49 and 49% below the 200-day MA of ~$113. RSI ~30 at the oversold boundary, MACD histogram attempting convergence after 10+ months of negative readings, and two tests of the $49–$50 low suggest a W double bottom attempt (unconfirmed). Short interest 7.2% (+80.6% YoY) creates significant short squeeze potential if triggered.
Recommended split (Scenario A): Enter on $49–$51 low retest with RSI bullish divergence confirmation. Stop $45. Add on $70 breakout + 150%+ volume confirmation. Final decision checkpoint: Q2 2026 earnings, late July 2026.
SPSC Technical Analysis Chart (Jul 2024–Jun 2026, Price · MA · RSI · MACD)
Support
$49~$50 (52주 절대 저점, 2회 확인) · $42~$45 ($49 이탈 시 갭 구간)
Resistance
$70 (단기 매물대 + 반등 고점) · $85 (2025.10~11 저점 매물대) · $110~$113 (200일선, 추세 전환 관문)
Trend Analysis
Short-term (20-day MA): Downtrend — 20-day MA pressing down above current price. Mid-term (50-day MA ~$77): Strong downtrend — 33% above current price. Long-term (200-day MA ~$113): Strong downtrend — 95% above current price. MA alignment: Full bearish order (200>50>20>5-day), persisting ~11 months. Last death cross: ~March 2025. Trend strength: Strong bearish. Down 73% from the $215 peak.
Momentum & Indicators
RSI(14): ~30 — at the oversold boundary. Bullish divergence not yet formed (second low test in progress). MACD: Histogram attempting convergence after 10+ months of negative readings. Signal line crossover not yet triggered. Bollinger Bands: Near lower band; volatility expansion imminent post-squeeze. Volume: 91% of daily average — panic selling concluded, but no confirmed bounce energy. OBV: Declining alongside price (capital outflow ongoing). Short interest: 7.2% (float), +80.6% YoY — significant short squeeze potential if triggered.
Key Technical Points
Two bounces confirmed from the 52-week absolute low of $49. W-shaped double bottom attempt underway (unconfirmed). Whether a third test forms RSI bullish divergence is the key condition for a trend reversal signal. A break below $49 opens the $42–$45 gap zone.
RSI(14) has entered the oversold boundary at 30. If RSI bullish divergence forms in this zone (RSI rising while price makes a new low), it would be the strongest leading signal for a near-term bounce. Not yet formed — second low test in progress.
Histogram attempting convergence after 10+ months in negative territory. Decreasing absolute value of the histogram = medium-term signal of weakening selling momentum. However, a true bounce confirmation requires a MACD golden cross (MACD line crossing above signal line).
$70 is where short-term supply zone and the previous bounce high overlap — the first resistance. Both Scenarios A and B target $70 as the first objective. A breakout with 150%+ average volume would generate momentum toward the $85 second resistance zone.
The 200-day MA ~$113 is 95% above the current price. Closing above this level is the official confirmation of a long-term trend reversal. It also coincides with the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement ($112) — a strong double resistance. The baseline used in the conservative K-PER upside calculation.
Short interest 7.2% (float), up +80.6% in the past 12 months. An unexpected positive catalyst (earnings rebound, activist deal resolution, large customer win) could trigger a short-squeeze-led rapid surge. Currently reflects bets on the downtrend continuing — expected to amplify moves at the initial stage of a trend reversal.
Trading Scenarios
Entry
$49–$51 low retest + RSI bullish divergence confirmation
Stop
$45 ($49 break + gap zone entry prevention)
Target
1st $70 (+38%), 2nd $85 (+67%)
R:R 3.4:1 to 1st target $70 ✅. R:R 5.7:1 to 2nd target $85 ✅. No entry without confirmed low-reversal candle. Cut immediately if $45 breaks.
Entry
1st $56 now (1/3) / 2nd $50 low retest (1/3) / 3rd $70 breakout confirm (1/3), avg ~$58.7
Stop
$45 (full position stop)
Target
1st $70, 2nd $85
R:R 1.9:1 to 2nd target $85 ⚠️. Execute only if committed to holding beyond $85. Staged entry manages average cost basis.
Entry
Enter at close if daily volume surges 200%+ and closes bullish
Stop
Entry price -8%
Target
$70 (+25%+)
R:R ~3.1:1 (8% stop basis). Position size: back-calculate from 1–1.5% total capital loss limit. Absolutely no entry without volume explosion. Immediate profit-taking after any sharp rally.
Bullish Signals
RSI ~30 oversold boundary + Bollinger lower band — elevated probability of technical bounce
Short interest 7.2% (+80.6% YoY) — significant short squeeze potential if a catalyst triggers covering
Two tests of $49–$50 low — W double bottom attempt (confirmed when accompanied by RSI divergence)
MACD histogram convergence attempt — after 10+ months negative, a signal of weakening selling momentum
Panic selling concluded (volume at 91% of average) — forced seller energy exhausted
Bearish Risks
11-month full MA downtrend — strong trend inertia; even a short-term bounce is not a reversal until $70→$85→$113 resistance is cleared sequentially
MACD histogram persistent negative — momentum recovery basis is insufficient before a signal-line crossover
Q2 2026 guidance cut risk — if $49 breaks, gap zone at $42–$45 is the next downside target
OBV declining with price — institutional capital outflow ongoing, distribution signal active
Editor Note
SPSC is currently in a "B+-grade business durability but worst-in-class technical timing" zone. A retail supply chain infrastructure company with 99 consecutive quarters of growth has fallen 73% from peak on Carbon6 failure and AI fears. RSI oversold + two tests of the $49 low suggest bounce potential, but large-scale entry remains risky until the MA downtrend fully resolves. Late July Q2 2026 earnings are the single biggest catalyst for determining whether growth is stabilizing.
* Technical analysis is based on historical data and does not guarantee future returns. Final investment decisions are your own responsibility.
SPS Commerce Growth & Business Model Dashboard (2018–2026)
Switching Cost & Moat
Moat Strength by Type
Network Effects
115,000+ trading partners (80+ countries) in a two-sided network. Each new supplier joining increases value for existing retailers. Decades required to replicate. 3,500+ buying organizations and 2,000+ 3PLs connected.
Switching Costs
EDI is deeply integrated into customer ERP/OMS/WMS systems. Replacement requires months of reconfiguration + trading partner re-onboarding. 93–97% customer retention is direct evidence of switching costs. SPS's full-service managed-service model further reinforces lock-in.
Technology / Data
EDI standards are open, so patent barriers are low. However, MACS agentic AI trained on billions of transactions and embedded in the platform is building a new technology moat. The data advantage is an indirect moat difficult for competitors to replicate quickly.
Brand
Official "World's Largest Retail Network" positioning. High B2B industry recognition as the standard platform for supplier onboarding at Walmart, Amazon, Target. No consumer brand, but strong preference among suppliers and 3PLs.
Cost Structure
Scale economies improving gross margins from 67% to 69%. However, consecutive large acquisitions (SupplyPike $206M + Carbon6 $210M) raised operating costs. Low marginal costs inherent to software mean strong operating leverage as the business scales.
SPS Commerce's moat rests on a dual structure: network effects and switching costs. The 115,000+ trading partner network (80+ countries) connects retailers, suppliers, and 3PLs in a true two-sided marketplace — each new participant increases value for existing ones. Replicating this network would take decades. Switching costs arise from deep ERP/OMS/WMS integration: replacement requires months of reconfiguration and partner re-onboarding, evidenced by 93–97% retention rates. Technical patent barriers are low (EDI standards are open), but MACS agentic AI and billions of transaction data points are building a new technology moat layer. Key vulnerability: both moats rest on the continued dominance of EDI protocols.
Management & Governance
Chad Collins (current CEO, Oct 2023). Former CEO of Körber Supply Chain Software (5+ years), 25 years in supply chain technology. As an external hire, cultural and strategic alignment with SPS is still being validated. Former CEO Archie Black (2001–2023, 22-year tenure) was a founder-level operator who drove the SaaS pivot, IPO, and 96 consecutive quarters of revenue growth. The Carbon6 ($210M) acquisition under Collins — his first large deal — immediately failed, raising capital allocation concerns. COO/President Jim Frome's Dec 2024 departure adds operational uncertainty. Positive track record on bolt-ons: TIE Kinetix (Europe expansion), SupplyPike (supplier revenue recovery). Share buybacks: $114M in FY2025. How the board and management respond to activist Anson will be the critical variable determining the investment thesis.
Competitive Landscape
TrueCommerce EDI
Functionally comparable cloud EDI platform. Network scale significantly smaller than SPS. Competes primarily in the SMB segment.
Cleo Integration Cloud
B2B integration and EDI solutions. Focused on mid-to-large enterprise segment. Unlike SPS's managed-service model, offers more self-configuration — partially different customer profile.
SAP / Oracle ERP
Indirect competition via ERP-embedded supply chain modules. Competition at large enterprise accounts. Limited overlap with SPS's SMB-supplier-centric customer base.
AI-native API 플랫폼 (신흥)
API-first integration platforms emerging with an "EDI is obsolete" narrative. Currently a long-term rather than near-term threat. Major retailer EDI entrenchment limits short-term displacement, but risk materializes if AI transition accelerates faster than expected.
Direct competitors: TrueCommerce EDI, Cleo Integration Cloud — similar functionality but far smaller networks than SPS. TIE Kinetix was acquired by SPS and removed from the competitive landscape. Indirect competitors: SAP, Oracle, IBM (ERP-embedded supply chain modules), MuleSoft — targeting large enterprises, with partial overlap in the mid-market. Emerging threat: AI-native API-first integration platforms pitching "EDI is obsolete" as a long-term structural argument. However, major retailers like Walmart, Amazon, Target, and Costco are deeply entrenched in legacy EDI infrastructure, making near-term displacement unlikely. SPS's response: MACS agentic platform + "AI requires clean EDI data" logic as a preemptive positioning move.
ESG & Summary
Environmental: As a software company, direct carbon footprint is minimal. Digital supply chain automation (paper document elimination, logistics optimization) delivers indirect environmental benefits. Social: Enables digitization and efficiency for 50,000+ customers including SMB suppliers; employs 2,783 people centered in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Governance: Independent publicly traded entity, independent board (Chairman Philip Soran), no founder-family concentration risk. Activist Anson's stake and push for a sale is an ongoing test of board independence. $114M FY2025 share buyback confirms shareholder return commitment.
Key Risks
Carbon6 · Amazon Risk
$210M acquisition immediately undermined when Amazon changed marketplace rules and technical requirements, destroying the economics of the revenue recovery solution. Exposed a structural vulnerability: core business logic dependent on a single platform's policy decisions. The direct cause of the 61–73% stock decline from peak.
EDI Technology Obsolescence Risk
Long-term threat that AI/API-based real-time data exchange could replace EDI. Near-term displacement is unlikely given decades of retailer EDI entrenchment, but if API transition accelerates faster than expected, the structural basis of the switching cost moat erodes.
Activist Anson Risk
Anson fund has acquired a stake and is pressuring the board for a company sale. Sale completion could deliver a premium vs. strategic independence lost. If a sale falls through, management must rebuild strategy. The board's response will determine whether the investment thesis changes entirely.
Unproven CEO Transition Risk
Chad Collins (Oct 2023) brings supply chain technology experience but alignment with SPS's culture and customer ecosystem remains unvalidated. Carbon6 failure raised early doubts about capital allocation capability. COO Jim Frome's departure adds operational continuity risk.
Growth Deceleration Risk
Amazon 3P customer reduction (~4,000 customers) risks further FY2026 growth damage. Quarterly YoY growth: 1Q25 21% → 4Q25 13% → 1Q26E ~9%. If growth momentum continues declining, it becomes difficult to sustain the premium K-PER multiple (15–18x) in the valuation.
Gangbangcheon 4/5 passed
Gangbangcheon: Steps 1–4 passed. Step 5 (K-PER) conditional pass — conservative scenario only +5% upside (below 10% threshold). Grade B. Core moat and financial quality are solid, but growth deceleration (1Q26 YoY ~9%) leaves conservative upside insufficient. Carbon6 capital allocation failure and unproven CEO are downgrade factors.
SPS Commerce Growth Dashboard (2018–2026)
Gangbangcheon 5-Step Checklist
Step 1
Industry / Infrastructure Tailwind ✅⚠️
EDI software TAM ~$2.6B in 2025; supply chain management software TAM $21B→$52B forecast by 2033. Structurally growing demand for retail supply chain digitization. However, long-term EDI→API transition risk persists — AI/API platforms pitching "EDI is obsolete" are a structural risk to the industry growth premise. SPS's MACS agentic AI positioning provides a partial buffer.
Step 2
Market Position — Grade A ✅
Global #1 in cloud-based retail EDI ("World's Largest Retail Network" is the official positioning). 115,000+ trading partners — overwhelming scale advantage over competitors. 93–97% retention, 50,000+ recurring customers. Standard platform for Walmart, Amazon, Target, Costco. Pricing power: ARPU upsell is ongoing, though negotiating leverage with major retailers is limited.
Step 3
Business Model ✅⚠️
Subscription SaaS: 94% recurring revenue, monthly per-customer fees. Four expansion axes: platform (Fulfillment→Analytics→Assortment→MACS), geography (82% North America, global expansion), vertical (EDI→data analytics→AI), volume (customer growth). P×Q-C: ARPU↑ × customers↑ × gross margin 67%→69%. ⚠️ Carbon6 capital allocation failure — an Amazon-dependent acquisition outside the platform expansion logic. CEO remains unproven.
Step 4
Financial Quality ✅
FCF margin 20.3% (FY2025), operating margin 15.7%. Revenue 3-year CAGR ~20%. Debt-free capital structure. Piotroski F-Score 7/9. ROA 8.5%, ROE 9.6% — both improving. Cross-model Quadrant 1 maintained (revenue↑ + margin↑). P↑Q↑C→ (ideal direction). A-grade cash flow durability.
Step 5
K-PER Valuation ⚠️ Conditional Pass
Based on FY2025 operating income of $118.3M. Conservative scenario (+6%/yr) yields only +5% upside — below the 10% threshold → conditional pass. Base scenario (+10%/yr) at +43% meets the buy threshold. Optimistic (+15%/yr) at +81%. Current $2.1B market cap is at a historical low — upside exists if the base-to-optimistic scenario is credible. However, if growth deceleration accelerates, the stock falls below even the conservative scenario.
K-PER Scenario Analysis (3-Year Target)
FY2025 operating income $118.3M (per filing). K-PER multiples: 20x (optimistic) / 18x (base) / 15x (conservative) — reflecting dual moat (network effects + switching costs), discounted for growth deceleration and CEO risk. Based on current market cap ~$2.1B, target market cap at FY2029.
| Scenario | Annual Growth | Non-GAAP Profit | Applied PER | Target Cap | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Optimistic (+15%/yr) | +15%/yr | $190M | 20x | $3.8B | +81% |
| Base (+10%/yr) | +10%/yr | $166M | 18x | $3.0B | +43% |
| Conservative (+6%/yr) | +6%/yr | $149M | 15x | $2.2B | +5% |
Geochajesi Score (6/20)
Trading volume at ~15% of daily average — no confirmed bounce energy. Short interest 7.2% (float), +80.6% YoY surge — short squeeze potential exists but currently signals deteriorating flows. Insider sale (Director Marty Reaume, $57K, May 2026). 98.96% institutional ownership, passive-dominated — no active accumulation signal.
Full MA downtrend (200>50>20>5-day) persisting 11 months. Current $58 is probing lows near the 52-week low of $49. RSI ~30 at the oversold boundary. Two tests of the $49–$50 low suggest a W double bottom attempt (unconfirmed). MACD histogram attempting convergence after 10+ months negative.
A-grade: FY2025 EPS beat + full-year guidance reaffirmed. 99 consecutive quarters of growth. MACS agentic AI launch. B-grade: Amazon 3P customer reduction (~4,000) materializing as FY2026 growth damage. 1Q26 growth guidance lowered to ~9%. Activist Anson pressure continuing. Carbon6 failure narrative unresolved.
NASDAQ stable since May 2026. Broad risk-on environment. However, SPSC continues to underperform even within its sector (cloud SaaS) due to AI obsolescence concerns. Fed on hold → neutral for growth stocks. Carbon6/Anson issues continue applying company-specific discount pressure.
Entry Strategy (3 Tranches)
Gangbangcheon B + near 52-week low + historic undervaluation ($2.1B market cap). Below 5% of target weight. 3–5 year holding horizon is a prerequisite. Start small to absorb potential further near-term decline.
Add on $49 low retest with RSI bullish divergence forming. Hammer candle + volume confirmation required. Confirmed double bottom justifies increasing position.
Add on $70 breakout + 150%+ volume confirmation. Mid-term trend reversal signal. If Geochajesi recovers to 14+ points (volume + golden cross + earnings rebound), consider short-term entry.
Exit Triggers
FY2026 Q2 earnings (late July) shows additional guidance cut
$49 support break without RSI bullish divergence ($42–$45 gap zone below)
If Anson-led sale falls through without management presenting a clear growth turnaround strategy
EDI displacement acceleration signal — if a major retailer officially announces a switch to API-based systems
Consider trimming position if market cap reaches $3.0B (base K-PER scenario target)
Portfolio Weight Recommendation
Short-term: No entry (Geochajesi 6/20 no-trade zone). Long-term staged accumulation: up to 5% weight feasible (current $2.1B market cap is historically undervalued). Keep total position smaller than Grade A names given B-grade risk profile. 3–5 year holding horizon is a prerequisite.
Editor Note
"A-grade moat, but Grade B due to capital allocation concerns and timing." A retail supply chain infrastructure company with 99 consecutive quarters of growth has fallen from $6.5B to $2.1B market cap on Carbon6 failure and AI fears — likely an overreaction. However, an unproven CEO, EDI obsolescence risk, and activist pressure must resolve before large-scale entry. Building a small staged position and waiting for Q2 2026 earnings (late July) to confirm growth stabilization is the rational approach.
Financial Data
Fiscal year: January 1–December 31 (calendar year). Currently in FY2026 Q2 (Apr–Jun 2026). Next earnings: Late July 2026 (Q2 FY2026, expected).
| Period | Revenue | Growth | Op. Income | Op. Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2023Cross-model Quadrant 1 (revenue↑ + margin↑). FCF ~$112M (~20.9% margin) | $537M | +24% YoY | $67M | 12.5% |
| FY2024SupplyPike $206M + TIE Kinetix integration. FCF ~$137M (~21.5% margin) | $638M | +19% YoY | $89M | 13.9% |
| FY2025Includes Carbon6 $210M acquisition. FCF $152M (20.3% margin). Share buyback $114M | $752M | +18% YoY | $118M | 15.7% |
| FY2026 가이던스Impact of ~4,000 Amazon 3P customer reduction. Q2 2026 earnings (late July) is the key validation event | 성장 둔화 (1Q26 YoY ~9%) | 1Q26 YoY +8.86% (추정) | 가이던스 유지 (연초 발표 기준) | 성장 지속 목표 (Carbon6 영향 하방 압력) |
GAAP vs Non-GAAP Note
SPS Commerce does not show a large GAAP/non-GAAP divergence. Primary adjustments are stock-based compensation (SBC) and acquired intangible amortization. FCF = operating cash flow minus capex. Acquisition-related transaction costs and amortization are treated as one-time items. The $114M FY2025 share buyback faces timing criticism given the Carbon6 failure, but confirms shareholder return intent.
Key Valuation Metrics
FCF Margin (FY2025)
20.3%
FCF $152M; alongside 15.7% op. margin, confirms stable cash generation
ROA (FY2025)
8.5%
Continuous improvement from 7.1% in FY2023 to 8.5% in FY2025
ROE (FY2025)
9.6%
Rising from 8.4% in FY2023 to 9.6%. Healthy given the debt-free capital structure
Institutional Ownership
98.96%
Passive-dominated: BlackRock, Vanguard, State Street. Short interest 7.2%
Piotroski F-Score
7/9
Solid financial health. Debt-free, improving margins and ROA
* GAAP basis. All figures are estimates based on public information and are not investment advice.
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